What death data is telling us

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.5.1″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.5.1″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.5.1″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.5.1″ _module_preset=”default”]

I’m diving into death data using three different metrics and applying these metrics to three different categories (counties, race/ethnicity, and age):

  1. How many cases does it take before there’s a death?

2. How many of the cases with a known outcome died versus recovered?

3. How many deaths have there been per 10,000?

 

Some caveats:

All of this data is pulled from the Arkansas Department of Health, which has been slow to report Covid deaths. For example, coroner reports show 97 deaths among Benton and Washington County residents. The state has only reported 61 in those two counties. Take this data as a snapshot of perhaps 2-3 weeks ago.

 

Statewide data

  • 89 cases per death
  • 1.4% of cases with an outcome have resulted in death
  • 1.2 deaths per 10,000 residents.

Let’s start with counties, and in particular, the counties that are performing well.

Here are the counties with the highest number of cases per death:

Hot Spring County

669 cases per death

0.3% died vs. recovered

0.6 deaths per 10,000 residents

What’s significant about Hot Spring’s outbreak is that it’s new and it’s occurring within a prison population. We can expect there to be high levels of testing, even among those who are mildly ill or asymptomatic. But we know those death numbers will go up; it’s just too early in the outbreak to have a full death toll right now.

 St. Francis County

312 cases per death

0.3% died vs. recovered

1.1 deaths per 10,000 residents

Here again we have an outbreak linked heavily to a correctional facility, though not all cases in the county were in that facility. This likely contributed to identification of a high number of positive cases regardless of symptoms. It also seems the prison population in St. Francis County (a federal prison) have fared better in health outcomes compared to populations in state prisons. More to come on that in a separate post.

Madison County

226 cases per death

0.5% died vs. recovered

0.6 deaths per 10,000 residents

Faulkner County

217 cases per death

0.6% died vs. recovered

0.3 deaths per 10,000 residents

Pope County

200 cases per death

0.6% died vs. recovered

0.6 deaths per 10,000 residents

Saline County

188 cases per death

0.7% died vs. recovered

0.3 deaths per 10,000 residents

Miller County

162 cases per death

1.3% died vs. recovered

0.5 deaths per 10,000 residents

Howard County

161 cases per death

0.8% died vs. recovered

0.8 deaths per 10,000 residents

Benton County

154 cases per death 

0.7% died vs. recovered

0.9 deaths per 10,000 residents

Lee County

142 cases per death

0.8% died vs recovered

6.5 deaths per 10,000 residents (3rd highest in the state)

 

Lowest Cases per Death

Those are our high-performers. Now, let’s look at the counties that have the lowest number of cases per death. Remember that higher cases per deaths is better than lower cases per death.

1. Lawrence County

14 cases per death: This means that 1 out of every 14 people who contracted Covid in Lawrence County died from it. 

8.7% died vs. recovered (highest in the state)

5.4 deaths per 10,000 residents (4th highest in the state)

2. Sharp County

15 cases per death

8.6% died vs. recovered (2nd highest in the state)

2.9 deaths per 10,000 residents (10th highest in the state)

3. Lafayette County

17 cases per death

8.3% died vs. recovered (3rd highest in the state)

2.9 deaths per 10,000 residents

4. Van Buren County

18 cases per death

5.6% died vs. recovered (5th highest  in the state)

1.2 deaths per 10,000 residents

5. Nevada County

19 cases per death

6.5% died vs. recovered (4th highest in the state)

7.1 deaths per 10,000 residents (2nd highest in the state)

6. Union County

20 cases per death

5.5% died vs. recovered (6th highest in the state)

3.5 deaths per 10,000 residents (8th highest in the state)

7. Columbia County

24 cases per death

8.6% died vs. recovered (7th highest percentage in the state)

2.9 deaths per 10,000 residents

8. Stone County

24 cases per death

5.0% died vs. recovered

0.8 deaths per 10,000 residents

9. Poinsett County

27 cases per death

4.6% died vs. recovered (9th highest percentage in the state)

1.3 deaths per 10,000 residents

10. Izard County

28 cases per death

4.4% died vs. recovered

0.7 deaths per 10,000 residents

Highest deaths per 10,000 residents

1. Lincoln County

101 cases per death

1.1% died vs. recovered

8.0 deaths per 10,000 residents

2. Nevada County (7.1 deaths per 10k; stats above)

3. Lee County (6.4 deaths per 10k; stats above)

4. Lawrence County (5.4 deaths per 10k; stats above)

5. Sevier County

93 cases per death

1.2% died vs. recovered

5.2 deaths per 10,000 residents

6. Yell County

82 cases per death

1.5% died vs. recovered

5.1 deaths per 10,000 residents

7. Jefferson County

31 cases per death

3.9% died vs. recovered

4.2 deaths per 10,000 residents

8. Union County (3.5 deaths per 10,000 residents; see stats above)

9. Phillips County

32 cases per death

3.9% died vs. recovered

3.2 deaths per 10,000 residents

10. Sharp County (2.9 deaths per 10,000 residents; see stats above)

 

 

 

 

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.5.1″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″]

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section]

Rob Wells

Rob Wells, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Journalism at the University of Arkansas School of Journalism and Strategic Media.

ABOUT ARKANSAS COVID


The University of Arkansas School of Journalism and Strategic Media operates this site as an independent source of news and as a community service for Arkansas residents. Students produce the content here under the supervision of Rob Wells, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Journalism. The data presented here is collected at roughly the same time each day from the Arkansas Department of Health website.

Questions? Email arkansascovid@gmail.com